The United Nations projects global economic output will grow 2.7% in 2026, a slight slowdown from an estimated 2.8% in 2025, in its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report.
UN officials said growth is expected to pick up to 2.9% in 2027, but remain below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2% seen between 2010 and 2019.
UN flags slower growth risk
The UN report warns the global economy faces the risk of a prolonged stretch of weaker growth than before the pandemic, with current growth not delivering broad development gains.
It says geopolitical risks, policy uncertainty, and fiscal challenges are clouding the outlook.
The report also notes that a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs in 2025 unsettled the trade environment, and it expects growth to moderate in 2026 as weaker trade is only partly offset by monetary easing.
Trade, inflation, and cost pressures
Global trade expanded by 3.8% in 2025, the report says, supported by front-loading of shipments early in the year and strong growth in services trade.
Trade growth is projected to slow to 2.2% in 2026, according to the report.
At the same time, the UN media advisory says inflation has eased in many economies, but cost-of-living pressures continue to strain household budgets and worsen inequality.
US, EU, and China outlook
The report projects U.S. economic growth at 2.0% in 2026, up slightly from 1.9% in 2025, supported by monetary and fiscal easing.
In the same report, U.S. growth is forecast at 2.2% in 2027, while inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target in 2026 and then gradually ease as tariff effects wane and housing costs stabilize.
For the European Union, growth is forecast at 1.3% in 2026 (down from 1.5% in 2025), with the report pointing to higher U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty as factors weighing on exports.
China’s economy is projected to grow 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, compared with an estimated 4.9% expansion in 2025, according to the report.
The report also says a temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States, including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce, has helped stabilize confidence, while policy support is expected to sustain domestic demand.
Regional picture: Asia, Africa, and beyond
South Asia is projected to grow 5.6% in 2026, easing from 5.9% in 2025, with growth expected to return to 5.9% in 2027.
India’s growth is estimated at 7.4% for 2025 and forecast at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027, supported by resilient consumption and strong public investment, according to the report.
East Asia is projected to grow 4.4% in 2026, down from 4.9% in 2025, as the report says the boost from front-loaded exports fades, while Japan is expected to expand 0.9% in 2026 compared with 1.2% in 2025.
In Africa, the report projects growth of 4.0% in 2026, marginally up from 3.9% in 2025, while noting high debt and climate-related shocks as significant risks.
Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to expand 2.3% in 2026, slightly below 2.4% in 2025, with the report referencing moderate growth in consumer demand and a mild recovery in investment.
Western Asia’s GDP is expected to grow 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025, according to the report.
The report projects the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia will grow 2.1% in 2026, mostly unchanged from 2025, and says the Ukraine crisis continues to weigh on macroeconomic conditions.
Separately, the UN media advisory says risks of renewed supply disruptions remain elevated due to conflicts, climate-related disasters, trade fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions.
Briefing and policy message
UN DESA officials briefed reporters at UN Headquarters in New York on Thursday, including Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif, according to the UN media advisory and the video report.
In the video, Hanif says the UN projects economic growth will stabilize at 2.7% this year compared with 2.8% in 2025.
The UN media advisory says the report highlights the need for global cooperation and policies that support growth while advancing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals.
