Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. expects to report an unprecedented financial performance for the first quarter of 2026. The world’s largest supplier of memory chips has issued a Samsung Q1 profit forecast detailing a record-breaking operating profit of 57.2 trillion won. Quartz translated this figure to $37.8 billion, while SiliconANGLE reported it as $37.9 billion for the January-to-March period.
This projection represents a massive year-over-year increase. The anticipated Samsung Q1 profit is up more than eightfold compared to the 6.69 trillion won the company recorded during the same quarter in 2025. Furthermore, the forecast roughly triples Samsung’s previous all-time quarterly high of 20.07 trillion won, which was achieved just three months prior in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The preliminary figures easily surpassed market expectations. News outlets reported conflicting consensus estimates, with Reuters citing an LSEG SmartEstimate of 40.6 trillion won, while CNBC reported a slightly higher estimate of 42.3 trillion won from the same forecasting service.
In terms of total revenue, Samsung provided guidance of 133 trillion won for the first quarter. This marks a nearly 68% jump from the 79.14 trillion won recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company plans to publish its full earnings report on April 30.
AI Chip Demand Fuels Financial Growth
The extraordinary Samsung Q1 profit forecast is largely driven by the company’s memory chip business. Demand for semiconductors used in artificial intelligence computing has significantly outpaced available supply, pushing prices steadily higher. Samsung has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the ongoing AI boom, with its memory chips powering AI servers in data centers, as well as personal computers, smartphones, and various other computing devices.
While the company did not officially break down its profit numbers by division, analysts have provided estimates. Meritz Securities analyst Kim Sunwoo stated that the chip division likely generated around 54 trillion won, accounting for roughly 95% of the total operating profit. Conversely, the logic chip side of the business is estimated to be running a 1.6 trillion won deficit.
Most of the company’s profit stems from the surging price of traditional memory chips, which are essential for AI inference tasks. However, Samsung has also made notable progress in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chip segment. While rival SK Hynix Inc. dominated the HBM market last year, Samsung has recently shipped its latest HBM4 chips to customers. This move has helped the tech giant claw back market share. Although HBM chips are primarily used for AI training workloads, analysts estimate they only accounted for about 5% of Samsung’s chip revenue.
Market research firm TrendForce expects prices for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips to rise by more than 50% in the current quarter due to persistent shortages. Furthermore, actual contract prices are occasionally even higher than market estimates.
Samsung’s financial results also benefited from favorable foreign exchange rates. The South Korean won recently fell to a 17-year low against the U.S. dollar, which boosted the value of the company’s repatriated foreign earnings.
Smartphone Division Performance
Beyond semiconductors, Samsung’s smartphone business also contributed to the bottom line, though at a smaller scale. The handset division is expected to have generated around 4 trillion won in profit. While this edges down slightly compared to the same period a year earlier, it still landed above analyst forecasts.
The smartphone business benefited from an existing inventory of low-cost components. However, as this inventory depletes, the division is likely to experience lower profit margins in the second quarter because it will need to purchase new supplies at much higher prices.
Market Reaction and Potential Headwinds
Following the record profit forecast, news outlets noted slight variations in market reaction. CNBC reported that Samsung’s shares initially surged up to 4.8% during the trading session before finishing up 1.76%, while SiliconANGLE reported a 5% surge that settled to a 2% gain. The stock has performed strongly overall, rising 61% year-to-date. This growth occurred despite a brief disruption last month when Google LLC introduced TurboQuant, a new technology that allows AI workloads to run on chips with reduced memory requirements.
Despite the exceptionally strong outlook, the company faces several potential headwinds in the coming months. Rising energy costs and potential materials shortages tied to the U.S.-Iran war and the broader Middle East conflict have sparked concerns. These geopolitical tensions have interrupted the flow of key semiconductor production inputs, such as helium, and could cause further disruptions to chipmaking supply chains. This situation has led to fears that demand for memory chips in AI data centers might weaken.
Additionally, analysts have questioned whether the rapid increase in memory prices can be sustained. TrendForce Senior Vice President Avril Wu noted that spot DRAM prices softened last week because end consumers are struggling to absorb the elevated costs. Ryu Young-ho of NH Investment & Securities also indicated that while Samsung will attempt to restructure its long-term contracts to maintain growth, there are lingering concerns about a peak in memory price increases.
