The rapidly expanding US-Israeli war with Iran is causing severe disruptions to global energy markets. Following joint military strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, while President Donald Trump pledged to do “whatever it takes” to secure a victory.
The conflict, which began on February 28, has quickly engulfed the Middle East. Iran has launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks against neighboring Gulf states, US military bases, and Israel, severely impacting regional stability and global oil supplies.
Trump Pledges Decisive Action
President Trump signaled his readiness to target Iranian nuclear installations and government entities. He aims to compel Tehran to accept strict ceasefire conditions, which include a permanent halt to uranium enrichment, limitations on ballistic missile development, and an end to Iranian support for proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Trump estimated the military campaign could stretch four to five weeks, though he emphasized the United States is prepared for a longer conflict. His administration feels military options are stronger now due to the presence of a US carrier strike group in the region.
Despite the offensive, the United States has already faced losses. Three American troops were killed over the weekend, and three military jets were downed by friendly fire on Monday morning. As casualties mount, analysts suggest Trump may abandon his earlier calls for regime change in favor of negotiating a swift deal to end the hostilities.
Widespread Energy Disruptions and Blockades
The conflict has triggered a massive global energy crisis. Iran has largely halted oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz, using drone assaults and intimidation to drop commercial maritime traffic by 80 percent. Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, an advisor to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, threatened that Iranian forces would “strike and ignite any vessel attempting to pass through” the vital waterway.
In response to the blockade and drone attacks on at least four tankers, major marine insurers revoked war-risk coverage for the region. The transit disruptions have already caused global oil prices to spike by $10 per barrel. Experts warn that natural gas prices could rapidly return to 2022 levels if the supply crisis persists.
Regional energy production is severely impacted. Qatar suspended operations at its liquefied natural gas facilities, halting roughly 20 percent of the global supply. Israel also halted gas production at its Karish and Leviathan fields. Iraq decreased its oil output by 1.16 million barrels per day due to storage limits and closed export routes, warning that nearly all production could cease within days.
In Saudi Arabia, operations at the massive Ras Tanura refinery were halted after intercepted Iranian drones caused a fire. The kingdom is now redirecting crude shipments to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Globally, Chinese refiners are reducing operations, while India is actively searching for alternative crude sources.
Regional Retaliation and Military Clashes
Iran’s retaliatory strategy involves imposing heavy economic costs on its neighbors. Iranian missiles and drones have targeted civilian and military sites, including airports, hotels, and energy facilities across the region. A civilian was killed in Abu Dhabi, prompting strong condemnations from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Reports also indicate that Iran struck the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia.
To prevent the war from expanding further into neighboring borders, the Lebanese government issued a stern warning to Hezbollah, urging the group not to drag Lebanon into the conflict.
The US military is actively degrading Iran’s naval capabilities to secure maritime routes. The US Central Command reported sinking or incapacitating all 11 Iranian naval vessels deployed in the Gulf of Oman and neutralizing submarine capabilities at Bandar Abbas.
International Law and War Legality
The initial military operations, dubbed Operation Shield of Judah and Operation Epic Fury, have drawn intense legal scrutiny. International law experts argue that the joint US-Israeli strikes violate the United Nations Charter’s prohibition against aggression.
Ben Saul, the UN special rapporteur on human rights and counterterrorism, stated the offensive is not lawful self-defense, as Iran had not launched an armed attack prior to the strikes. The Trump administration initiated the operation without authorization from the UN Security Council or the US Congress, arguing that Iran’s missile and nuclear programs constituted a direct threat.
Yusra Suedi, an international law professor, classified the unprovoked strikes as an unjustified use of force. However, she also noted that Iran’s retaliatory bombardment of civilian infrastructure and commercial spaces violates the established rules of warfare.
